Prediction record
HitcryptoBitcoin's 20-week SMA will reach $40,000 within a couple of weeks of late March 2021
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“in a couple weeks the 20 week sma will actually be hitting 40 000”
Bitcoin's 20-week SMA will reach $40,000 within a couple of weeks of late March 2021
- Made on
- 2021-03-26
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.91
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-04-12
Bitcoin's 20-week simple moving average reaches ≥$40,000 by the deadline
The 20-week SMA is a derived indicator computed from BTC weekly closes (secondary derivation from primary price data), not a single primary figure. Computation: 20W SMA ≈ $36.5k (end-Mar 2021) → crossed $40k ~week of Apr 12, 2021 → ~$44k-$48k late Apr/May 2021, well before the 2021-06-26 deadline. resolved_on is the approximate crossing week; exact value depends on exchange/close convention but the ≥$40k threshold was cleared with a wide margin, so the conclusion is robust. Outcome value/scoring deferred.
Sources
Bitcoin Approaches the 21D EMA
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Derived from Bitcoin weekly closing prices (Nov 2020-June 2021): the 20-week SMA rose from ~$36.5k at end-March 2021 and crossed $40,000 in mid-April 2021 as low late-2020 weekly closes (~$16k-$28k) rolled off and were replaced by ~$50k-$60k spring 2021 closes. It continued rising into the mid-$40k range through late April/May 2021, comfortably clearing the $40k threshold before the June 26, 2021 deadline.
Context corroborating the underlying price path: BTC traded ~$55k-$64k Mar-mid-Apr 2021 then crashed in May to ~$30k-$40k (Chainalysis, May 2021 crash). The elevated Feb-Apr weekly closes are what lifted the 20-week SMA above $40k during the Apr-Jun window even as spot price later fell.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.91- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.91
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin's 20-week SMA will reach $40,000 within a couple of…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-03-26
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources