Prediction record
HitcryptoBitcoin experiences a correction of at least 40% from its cycle peak in the not-so-distant future
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“we're going to have a 40 drop in the not so distant future i mean it might not come at 60k maybe it comes at 80k or 100k”
Bitcoin experiences a correction of at least 40% from its cycle peak in the not-so-distant future
- Made on
- 2021-03-15
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-07-20
Bitcoin undergoes a peak-to-trough decline of at least 40% within roughly 12 months
Criterion (>=40% peak-to-trough within ~12 months) satisfied with wide margin. Note a second, larger cycle peak of ~$69,000 (Nov 2021) also saw a >40% correction inside the window, so the outcome holds regardless of which April/Nov peak is taken as the 'cycle peak.'
Sources
Bitcoin: My Concern for New Investors
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin peaked at $64,583 on 2021-04-14, then fell ~50% to roughly $29,000–$32,000 by the 2021-07-19/20 trough — far exceeding a 40% peak-to-trough decline, and well within ~12 months of the 2021-03-15 statement. The 40% threshold was first crossed in mid-May 2021 (BTC ~$30–31k on 2021-05-19, >50% off peak).
Corroborating summary: Bitcoin lost ~50% of its value from ~$63,000 (April 2021) to ~$32,000 (July 2021).
Corrections
- tags: A BTC drawdown/price call is crypto-primary per the dictionary crypto-vs-markets rule; primary crypto tag was missing.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin experiences a correction of at least 40% from its c…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-03-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources