Prediction record
HitcryptoBitcoin is approaching a local price top and will cool down (correct off its highs) in the near term.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“in the next few weeks or months is approaching a local top”
Bitcoin is approaching a local price top and will cool down (correct off its highs) in the near term.
- Made on
- 2021-03-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.91
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-05-19
Bitcoin prints a local price peak followed by a decline of ≥10% from that peak at some point within the window (by 2021-06-08).
Criterion (a local peak followed by ≥10% decline within window) is clearly met: peak $64,895 on 2021-04-14 → ≥10% drawdown completed well before 2021-06-08 (fell >30% by 2021-05-19, >50% by late June). resolved_on set to 2021-05-19, a date by which the ≥10% threshold was unambiguously crossed. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin printed a local/all-time peak of $64,895 on 2021-04-14 (within the 2021-03-08→2021-06-08 window), then declined sharply — by 2021-05-19 it had fallen ~30% to ~$31,000, and lost ~56% of its value by end of June. A ≥10% decline from a local peak was easily satisfied inside the window.
Wikipedia (Cryptocurrency bubble): after the mid-April 2021 peak, by 2021-05-19 Bitcoin had dropped ~30% to ~$31,000 amid China regulatory action and Tesla's payment suspension.
Corrections
- tags: Bitcoin-specific claim; 'crypto' is the more precise controlled-dictionary tag for the subject. Optional refinement.
Score contribution
+1.91- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.91
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin is approaching a local price top and will cool down…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-03-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources