Prediction record
25% outcomemarketsTotal cryptocurrency market capitalization will reach approximately $10 trillion
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
25% outcomemarkets“i do think that we will go to approximately 10 trillion dollars plus or minus a few trillion”
Total cryptocurrency market capitalization will reach approximately $10 trillion
- Made on
- 2021-03-01
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.72
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-03-01
Total crypto market capitalization reaches approximately $10 trillion (±a few trillion) at any point within the window.
Criterion (reach ~$10 trillion ±a few trillion at any point in window) was NOT met: the in-window peak was ~$3T, roughly one-third of the target and outside even a generous '±a few trillion' band. Evaluated at window close (2024-03-01) since the threshold was never touched. No outcome value assigned per instructions.
Sources
Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics (Part 9)
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Total cryptocurrency market capitalization peaked at ~$3.0–3.1 trillion for the first time on/around Nov 10, 2021 — the highest level reached anywhere in the window (2021-03-01 to 2024-03-01). It never approached $10 trillion during the window.
The ~$3.08T November 2021 figure stood as the all-time high until it was surpassed in late 2024 (after the window closed); confirms no ~$10T reading occurred before 2024-03-01.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.72- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.72
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Total cryptocurrency market capitalization will reach appro…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-03-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources