Prediction record
25% outcomemarketsTotal cryptocurrency market capitalization rises to approximately $6-7 trillion
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
25% outcomemarkets“we still have a few trillion to go upwards of say 6 trillion 7 trillion somewhere in that ballpark”
Total cryptocurrency market capitalization rises to approximately $6-7 trillion
- Made on
- 2021-03-03
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.72
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-03-03
Total crypto market capitalization reaches at least ~$6 trillion at some point within the 36-month window.
Not met. Peak total crypto market cap within the 2021-03-03 to 2024-03-03 window was ~$3T (Nov 2021) per Fortune/CoinMarketCap; CoinGecko measures the Nov-2021 high slightly lower (~$2.5-2.9T). Neither measurement is anywhere near the ~$6T criterion. The ~$3.9T level (Dec 2024) and higher came only AFTER the 36-month window ended.
Sources
Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression: Reconciling Two Models
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Total crypto market capitalization first crossed $3 trillion for the first time ever in early November 2021 (~Nov 9-10, 2021) — its cycle high. This ~$3T Nov-2021 peak was the highest total-market-cap level reached within the 36-month window (2021-03-03 to 2024-03-03).
By March/April 2024 the total crypto market cap was only ~$2.6 trillion, still far below $6 trillion; the market did not approach even $4T until late 2024, after the window closed.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.72- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.72
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Total cryptocurrency market capitalization rises to approxi…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-03-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources