Prediction record
MissmarketsADA trends upward over the next several years, with pullbacks along the way
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“i do expect it to trend upwards over the next several years there will be pullbacks along the way nothing's going to go up monotonically”
ADA trends upward over the next several years, with pullbacks along the way
- Made on
- 2021-04-07
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-04-07
ADA's price is net higher than its utterance-date level by the horizon deadline
Criterion ('ADA's price is net higher than its utterance-date level by the horizon deadline') is not satisfied — ADA at ~$0.44–0.60 on/around 2024-04-07 is materially below the ~$1.2–1.35 utterance level. Conclusion is robust to the exact April-7-2024 print (ADA was sub-$0.70 all through early-mid 2024, versus >$1 at utterance). Note this differs from the qualitative 'top gainer' record above: here the written criterion is a clean net-higher/lower price comparison.
Sources
Cardano Marathon
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
ADA traded at roughly $1.20–$1.35 around the utterance date (2021-04-07). By the 2024-04-07 deadline ADA was well below that — trading in the ~$0.44–$0.60 range in April 2024 (month-close ~$0.44). ADA was net LOWER than its utterance-date level at the horizon deadline.
Corroborating history: ADA's $3.10 ATH (Sept 2021) was followed by the 2022 bear market and a multi-year sub-dollar stretch; ADA only closed 2024 near $0.84 after a late-2024 election-driven rally — still well after this record's April-2024 deadline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
ADA trends upward over the next several years, with pullbac…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-04-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources