Prediction record
25% outcomecryptoBitcoin will reach at least $100,000 within the next 18 months
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
25% outcomecrypto“even the most bearish scenario i can envision would still put us at a six figure bitcoin probably within the next 18 months”
Bitcoin will reach at least $100,000 within the next 18 months
- Made on
- 2021-04-24
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.18
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-10-24
Bitcoin trades at or above $100,000 at any point on or before 2022-10-24
Criterion (BTC at/above $100,000 at any point on or before 2022-10-24) was not met. Peak in the window was ~$69k, roughly 31% short of the $100k threshold. Outcome unambiguous; window closed at the deadline.
Sources
Bitcoin: The Most Bearish Scenario
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin's all-time high during the 18-month window (2021-04-24 to 2022-10-24) was ~$68,990 on November 10, 2021 (nominal record ~$69,000). It never traded at or above $100,000 at any point in the window; after Nov 2021 it declined through the Terra/LUNA crash and traded well below $69k for the rest of the period.
CNBC/Axios coverage confirms the ~$69,000 Nov 2021 print stood as the all-time high until March 2024 — i.e., BTC did not reach $100k at any time before the 2022-10-24 deadline.
Corrections
- tags: BTC price target is crypto-primary per the dictionary; 'markets' carried as secondary.
Score contribution
+1.18- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.18
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin will reach at least $100,000 within the next 18 mon…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-04-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources