Prediction record
25% outcomecryptoTotal cryptocurrency market capitalization reaches approximately $10 trillion (plus or minus a few trillion)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
25% outcomecrypto“a total cryptocurrency market capitalization of approximately 10 trillion dollars plus or minus a few trillion dollars”
Total cryptocurrency market capitalization reaches approximately $10 trillion (plus or minus a few trillion)
- Made on
- 2021-06-01
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.72
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-06-01
Total crypto market capitalization reaches ~$10 trillion (within a few trillion) at any point in the window
Criterion (total crypto market cap reaches ~$10T within a few trillion at any point in the window) was not met. Peak in-window value (~$2.9–3.0T) is less than a third of $10T and below even the most generous 'few trillion' band. resolved_on set to window close 2024-06-01. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Bitcoin: The Beauty Of Mathematics (Part 12)
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Total crypto market capitalization never approached ~$10 trillion within the 2021-06-01 → 2024-06-01 window. Its prior-cycle peak was ~$3 trillion in November 2021, and the highest level reached before the deadline was only ~$2.9 trillion (March 2024). Even allowing 'within a few trillion' of $10T (i.e. ~$7T+), the market never came close.
Longer-run context confirming $10T was never reached in-window: total crypto market cap first crossed ~$3T at the Nov-2021 peak, and its all-time high was only ~$3.91T (Dec 2024) and later ~$4.27T (Oct 2025) — both AFTER the 2024-06-01 deadline and still far below $10T.
Corrections
- tags: A $10T total-crypto-market-cap level bet is a cryptocurrency price/level claim; the dictionary assigns 'crypto' primary + 'markets' secondary. Applying the same rule the check flagged on the ADA records, for consistency.
Score contribution
+2.72- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.72
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Total cryptocurrency market capitalization reaches approxim…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-06-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources