Prediction record
HitmarketsIf the Nasdaq breaks down to a new low in the short term, Bitcoin follows and at least retests its prior low
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“If, if the nasdaq does end up breaking down and putting in a new low in the short term, then I would argue that the bitcoin bears are not going to be going into hibernation anytime soon, and that bitcoin is very likely to come back down and at the very least retest the prior low.”
If the Nasdaq breaks down to a new low in the short term, Bitcoin follows and at least retests its prior low
- Made on
- 2022-02-20
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.94
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-05-12
Conditional on the Nasdaq making a new low after 2022-02-20: BTC declines to at or below its prior local low (~$33k) at least once within the window.
Conditional prediction: antecedent (Nasdaq new low after 2022-02-20) triggered in May 2022, and the consequent (BTC declines to at/below its ~$33k prior local low) was satisfied - BTC hit ~$25.4k on 2022-05-12, comfortably inside the deadline. resolved_on set to the day BTC breached the prior low.
Sources
Bitcoin: The Battles We Face
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The Nasdaq broke down to fresh 2022 lows in mid-May 2022 (Nasdaq Composite made new closing lows on 2022-05-11/05-12, below its earlier 2022 lows), satisfying the antecedent 'Nasdaq makes a new low after 2022-02-20'.
Conditional on that Nasdaq new low, BTC followed: on 2022-05-12 (amid the Terra/LUNA collapse) BTC plunged as low as ~$25,401, its lowest level in ~16 months - far below its prior local low of ~$33k (the Jan 2022 low). BTC therefore not only retested but exceeded its prior low, within the Feb 20 - May 20 window.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Resolution block establishes the antecedent (Nasdaq new low after 2022-02-20) triggered May 2022; condition_met must reflect that for internal consistency of the scored conditional.
Score contribution
+2.94- Confidence
- 90%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.94
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
If the Nasdaq breaks down to a new low in the short term, B…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources