Prediction record
MisscryptoIf Bitcoin drops to $29,000–$30,000, it bounces back to approximately $40,000 and retests its 200-day moving average near $40,000.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“my guess is that we would see some type of nice bounce probably back above 40k i mean to be completely honest like if we drop back down to 30k or 29k or something there's a good chance we could actually just bounce right back up to the 40k level and then come to fight the 200-day estimate again at around 40k and then try to break through”
If Bitcoin drops to $29,000–$30,000, it bounces back to approximately $40,000 and retests its 200-day moving average near $40,000.
- Made on
- 2022-04-25
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.31
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-07-25
After Bitcoin trades down to $29k–$30k, it rebounds to ~$40,000 and retests its 200-day moving average near $40k in the following weeks.
Conditional prediction. The 'if' clause (BTC to $29k–$30k) was satisfied in early-to-mid May 2022, so the prediction is testable and resolved. The 'then' consequent (rebound to ~$40k and retest of the 200-day MA near $40k in the following weeks) did NOT occur: within the deadline window BTC fell further to ~$17.7k (June 18) and traded in the ~$18k–$24k range through July 25, 2022 — never nearing $40k or its 200-day MA (itself declining and well above spot). Evidence is consistent across sources; no conflicting credible evidence. Outcome value (o) intentionally not assigned per stage scope.
Sources
Bitcoin Bull Market Support Band
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The conditional premise triggered: Bitcoin traded down to the $29k–$30k zone during the Terra/LUNA collapse (May 9–12, 2022), when UST lost its peg and LUNA went to near zero, driving the largest crypto crash to that date.
Rather than bouncing to ~$40k, Bitcoin broke lower. In the second week of June 2022 it closed around $20,552 and continued down; the average June 2022 close was $24,383.69 (down 37.8% for the month), with the lowest June close at $19,784.73 on June 30 — far below $40,000.
Bitcoin hit an intraday low near $17,700 on June 18, 2022 (close ~$19,017), roughly $22k below the predicted ~$40k target, and did not recover $30k again until April 2023 — well past the July 25, 2022 deadline.
Corrections
- tags: BTC price bet → 'crypto' primary; scoreable record feeds per-tag sub-scores.
Score contribution
+0.31- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.31
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
If Bitcoin drops to $29,000–$30,000, it bounces back to app…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-04-25
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources