Prediction record

Missmarkets

The ETH/BTC exchange ratio will trend lower over the next few months.

A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .

VideoPrimary sourcemarkets

Scored record

Missmarkets

i think it's likely to get gonna go down

The ETH/BTC exchange ratio will trend lower over the next few months.

Made on
2022-05-02
Outcome
Miss
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
-0.84

Criterion

Resolution status
resolved
Resolved on
2022-08-31

The ETH/BTC ratio is net lower by ~end of Aug 2022 than at the utterance date.

Prediction was ETH/BTC trends lower over the next few months; instead the ratio rose (~0.073 → ~0.078 by Aug 31, peaking ~0.085 in early Sept) as ETH outperformed into the Merge. Not borne out.

Sources

  • ETH/BTC: 2022 Outlook

    YouTube ·

    Source

Outcome evidence

  • ETH/BTC (Binance ETHBTC daily close) was 0.07344 on 2022-05-02 and 0.07752 on 2022-08-31 — net HIGHER, not lower, over the window.

    Evidence

  • ETH massively outperformed BTC from its June low into the Merge: the ETH/BTC ratio hit a 2022 high >0.085 on Sept 7, ~73% above July lows, as investors front-ran the PoS upgrade.

    Evidence

  • Contemporary reporting (CNBC, Aug 19 2022) confirms ether price outpacing bitcoin as the Ethereum Merge neared.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Score contribution

-0.84
Confidence
80%
Outcome
Miss
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
-0.84

This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Provenance

The ETH/BTC exchange ratio will trend lower over the next f…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
July 18, 2026
Made on
2022-05-02

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Evidence firstMethodology