Prediction record

Hiteconomy

US inflation will peak again (form at least a new local top) within two years of July 2022

A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .

VideoPrimary sourceeconomy

Scored record

Hiteconomy

i also think it's highly likely that inflation will peak again within the next two years at least to local top

US inflation will peak again (form at least a new local top) within two years of July 2022

Made on
2022-07-13
Outcome
Hit
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
+2.94

Criterion

Resolution status
resolved
Resolved on
2023-11-14

US headline CPI year-over-year forms a new local peak (a rise-then-fall reversal) at some point on or before 2024-07-13.

Criterion (a new local top, i.e. a rise-then-fall reversal, in headline CPI YoY on or before 2024-07-13) is met by the Aug-Sep 2023 local peak of 3.7% following the June 2023 trough of 3.0%. resolved_on set to 2023-11-14, the release date of the October 2023 CPI report whose fall to 3.2% confirmed the reversal. A second local top near 3.5% (Mar 2024) later reinforced this. Values are official BLS CPI-U figures.

Sources

  • Inflation Surges to 9.1% | Effects on Bitcoin and Stocks

    YouTube ·

    Source

Outcome evidence

  • US headline CPI YoY fell from its 9.1% peak (Jun 2022) to a local trough of 3.0% (Jun 2023), then rose to 3.2% (Jul 2023), 3.7% (Aug 2023) and 3.7% (Sep 2023), then reversed lower to 3.2% (Oct 2023). This rise-then-fall forms a clear new local peak at 3.7% in Aug-Sep 2023.

    Evidence

  • BLS/press coverage confirming CPI YoY was 3.7% in September 2023, up from 3.0% in June 2023.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Score contribution

+2.94
Confidence
90%
Outcome
Hit
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
+2.94

This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Provenance

US inflation will peak again (form at least a new local top…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
July 18, 2026
Made on
2022-07-13

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Evidence firstMethodology