Prediction record
MissmarketsIf the August 2022 CPI comes in below expectations (both headline and core), Bitcoin rallies to the 20–21 week EMA ($28,400–$29,100)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“if the inflation data comes in lower than expected then and by the way that means core inflation and headline inflation if it comes in much lower than expected maybe meaning even below the consensus then there's a good chance you will see some type of continued rally for bitcoin and i would be looking up to the 20 week out of seman the 21 week ema which right now are between 28.4k to 29.1 k”
If the August 2022 CPI comes in below expectations (both headline and core), Bitcoin rallies to the 20–21 week EMA ($28,400–$29,100)
- Made on
- 2022-08-10
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.31
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-11-10
Bitcoin trades up into the 28,400–29,100 range within the near-term window after the print.
Condition triggered but the predicted $28,400–$29,100 rally did not occur before the 2022-11-10 deadline; the August bounce topped out around $25,000. Resolved_on set to the deadline (end of the near-term window without the target being hit). A price-series check of intraday highs Aug 10–Nov 10 2022 can further corroborate that $28,400 was never touched.
Sources
Bitcoin and Inflation Data Inbound
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Antecedent MET: the July 2022 CPI (released 2022-08-10) printed below expectations on BOTH measures — headline 8.5% (vs ~8.7% expected) and core +0.3% MoM (vs +0.5% expected). So the 'CPI below expectations, both headline and core' condition was satisfied.
Consequent NOT met: Bitcoin's post-CPI bounce in August 2022 capped at ~$25,000 and never traded up into the $28,400–$29,100 target range. BTC then declined through Sept–Oct and collapsed toward ~$16,000 amid the FTX failure in early November 2022, so the target range was never reached within the near-term window ending 2022-11-10.
Corrections
- conditional condition: The 2022-08-10 print is the July 2022 CPI (named by reference month); the record's own evidence calls it the July print. Resolution unaffected.
Score contribution
+0.31- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.31
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
If the August 2022 CPI comes in below expectations (both he…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-08-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources