Prediction record
MissmarketsBitcoin will be in the $30,000–$40,000 range at the next halving (~April 2024)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“between the $30 to $40,000 range is where Bitcoin should be by the next Bitcoin having”
Bitcoin will be in the $30,000–$40,000 range at the next halving (~April 2024)
- Made on
- 2022-08-16
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-04-20
Bitcoin's price is within the 30,000–40,000 range at the time of the April 2024 halving.
Criterion ('BTC price within $30,000–$40,000 at the April 2024 halving') is unambiguously not met — BTC was ~$63k–$64k at the halving. Resolved_on set to the halving date 2024-04-20 (UTC block-840,000 timing).
Sources
Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The fourth Bitcoin halving occurred at block height 840,000 on 2024-04-19 ~20:09 ET / 2024-04-20 UTC (reward cut from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC). Bitcoin's price at the halving was ~$64,262 (widely reported as ~$63,000–$64,000), well ABOVE the predicted $30,000–$40,000 range.
Confirms the halving occurred at block 840,000 in April 2024 with BTC trading near $64,000, i.e. far outside the $30k–$40k range.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin will be in the $30,000–$40,000 range at the next ha…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-08-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources