Prediction record
HitmarketsRisk assets fall further (additional downside) in the months after August 2022
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“over the coming months there will be more pain ahead for risk assets”
Risk assets fall further (additional downside) in the months after August 2022
- Made on
- 2022-08-30
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-09-01
A broad risk-asset benchmark (S&P 500) trades below its 2022-08-30 close at some point within the window.
resolved_on marks the first trading below the baseline (early Sept 2022); the 3,577.03 close on 2022-10-12 is the extreme instance. Satisfied by any point below baseline; comfortably met.
Sources
Macroeconomics: Yield Curve, Inflation, Unemployment, Stocks, and Recessions
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
S&P 500 close on 2022-08-30 was 3,986.16 (baseline). The index traded and closed below this level almost immediately after (early September 2022) and reached its bear-market closing low of 3,577.03 on 2022-10-12 — roughly 10% below the baseline, well within the window to 2023-08-30. Criterion (S&P 500 trades below its 2022-08-30 close within the window) is met.
S&P 500 daily historical data confirming the 2022-08-30 close (~3,986) and the sub-3,600 October 2022 lows.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.27- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Risk assets fall further (additional downside) in the month…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-08-30
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources