Prediction record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve will pivot (pause or begin cutting rates) at some point in 2023.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“likely they're going to pivot sometime, um, in 2023.”
The Federal Reserve will pivot (pause or begin cutting rates) at some point in 2023.
- Made on
- 2022-10-06
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-06-14
The Fed pauses rate hikes or begins cutting at some point during calendar 2023.
Criterion (pause OR begin cutting during calendar 2023) satisfied by the June 2023 hold and confirmed by the sustained pause from July 2023 onward. The Fed did not cut in 2023, but a pause alone meets the written criterion.
Sources
Comparing S&P 500 Bear Markets
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The Fed held the target range steady at 5.00-5.25% at the June 14, 2023 FOMC meeting — its first pause after 10 consecutive hikes, satisfying the 'pause at some point in 2023' criterion.
After a final 25bps hike on July 26, 2023 to 5.25-5.50%, the Fed held rates at the September, November and December 2023 meetings — a sustained pause spanning the rest of 2023.
Corrections
- Quote wording: Human_caption transcript reads 'likely they're going to pivot sometime um in 2023'; the record substituted 'The Fed is' for the spoken 'they're'. Verbatim must be the pundit's own words; 'they're' unambiguously refers to the Fed, so the claim is unchanged.
Score contribution
+3.68- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Federal Reserve will pivot (pause or begin cutting rate…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-10-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources