Prediction record
HitmarketsCrypto markets will suffer less downside in 2023 than they did in 2022.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“2023 is likely not going to be as bad as 2022 in terms of the down the downside but there could still be more downside”
Crypto markets will suffer less downside in 2023 than they did in 2022.
- Made on
- 2022-11-14
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
The crypto market's largest peak-to-trough drawdown during calendar 2023 is smaller in magnitude than its largest peak-to-trough drawdown during calendar 2022.
Criterion clearly satisfied. The largest peak-to-trough crypto drawdown in calendar 2023 (~20-22% for BTC; comparably modest for total market cap) was far smaller in magnitude than the largest 2022 drawdown (~60-67%). Crypto suffered materially less downside in 2023 than in 2022 under any reasonable measure.
Sources
Bitcoin: Tips for Navigating the Bear Market [Updated]
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
2022 saw a catastrophic crypto drawdown: total crypto market cap fell from ~$2.2T at its 2022 peak to ~$829B by the FTX-driven November 2022 low (roughly -62% peak-to-trough), and Bitcoin fell from ~$47k in early 2022 to $15,672 on Nov 21, 2022.
2023 was a recovery year with far shallower drawdowns: total crypto market cap rose +108% from $829B to $1.72T, and Bitcoin's largest peak-to-trough decline within 2023 (mid-July high near $31k down to the September/October low near $25k) was roughly -20% to -22% — dramatically smaller than 2022's ~60-67% drawdown.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Crypto markets will suffer less downside in 2023 than they…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-11-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources