Prediction record
HiteconomyThe Fed's terminal policy rate of the current cycle reaches at least 4.5% (the 4-5% area).
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“I've been fairly adamant that I do think the FED funds rate should reach at least four to five percent will be the terminal look the terminal rate at least four to five percent”
The Fed's terminal policy rate of the current cycle reaches at least 4.5% (the 4-5% area).
- Made on
- 2022-11-01
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-12-14
The upper bound of the federal funds target rate reaches at least 4.5% at the peak of the current tightening cycle.
Criterion (upper bound of fed funds target reaches ≥4.5% at the cycle peak) is met and then some: upper bound first hit 4.50% on 14 Dec 2022 and the cycle peaked at 5.50%. Resolved_on set to 14 Dec 2022, when ≥4.5% was first achieved; deadline (2025-11-01) is far in the future but the outcome is already fully determined.
Sources
Upcoming FOMC: Hawkish or Dovish?
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The FOMC raised the target range to 4.25%–4.50% on 14 Dec 2022, first bringing the upper bound to 4.50% (≥4.5%). The cycle then peaked at 5.25%–5.50% on 26 Jul 2023 (upper bound 5.50%), well above 4.5%, and held there through 2024.
The Fed's final hike of the cycle (26 Jul 2023) set the terminal target range at 5.25%–5.50%, the highest in 22 years; no further hikes followed, confirming the cycle peak.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.68- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Fed's terminal policy rate of the current cycle reaches…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-11-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources