Prediction record
MisseconomyThe United States enters a recession in 2023.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“likely within about a year we're probably going to see a recession in the United States”
The United States enters a recession in 2023.
- Made on
- 2022-10-28
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.4
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-01-25
A US recession (NBER-dated, or the common two-consecutive-quarters-of-negative-real-GDP proxy) has any part falling within calendar year 2023.
Both the NBER-dated definition and the two-consecutive-negative-quarters proxy in the criterion are unambiguously unmet: no recession fell within CY2023. Resolved_on set to the 25 Jan 2024 advance Q4-2023 GDP release, which confirmed positive growth across all of 2023.
Sources
Upcoming FOMC: Hawkish or Dovish?
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee dated no recession touching 2023; the last dated peak is Feb 2020 / trough Apr 2020, so the US remained in expansion through all of 2023. No NBER-dated recession has any part in CY2023.
BEA real GDP grew positively in every quarter of 2023 — Q1 +1.3%, Q2 +2.1%, Q3 +4.9%, Q4 +3.2% (annualized), full-year +2.5%. No two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP occurred, so the common recession proxy was not met either.
Corrections
- Date: Verbatim is spoken in QmIziTMLp3s (uploaded 2022-10-28), confirmed in transcript; made_on must be the actual utterance date, not the mis-cited 2022-11-01 video.
Score contribution
-1.4- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.4
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The United States enters a recession in 2023.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-10-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources