Prediction record
HitcryptoThe ETH/BTC ratio will break down (Ethereum will underperform Bitcoin)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“the ethereum Bitcoin valuation will break down”
The ETH/BTC ratio will break down (Ethereum will underperform Bitcoin)
- Made on
- 2022-12-16
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-16
The ETH/BTC exchange ratio is lower at some point within the horizon window than at the utterance date.
Criterion = ETH/BTC lower at some point in the window than at utterance (Dec 16, 2022 ~0.07). Ratio fell far below that level (down to ~0.0177 in April 2025), so the breakdown/underperformance clearly occurred. Direction is unambiguous; criterion met well before the deadline (already below utterance level through 2024). resolved_on set to window close for determinism. Outcome value not assigned.
Sources
Ethereum: Standing on a Cliff
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
At/near the utterance date (Dec 16, 2022) the ETH/BTC ratio was roughly ~0.07 (ETH ~$1.2–1.3k / BTC ~$16.8k). Within the window the ratio broke down substantially, bottoming at ~0.0177 in April 2025 (a multi-year low) amid the 'Liberation Day' tariff turmoil — the lowest 2025 ETH/BTC rate cited as ~0.018.
Structural underperformance confirmed: ETH/BTC entered a prolonged multi-year downtrend from its Dec 2021 peak (>0.08), with much of the weakness through 2024–2025 driven by spot-BTC-ETF inflows; the ratio stayed well below its 200-week MA (~0.048), and even a mid-2025 rebound only reached ~0.043 (Aug 24) before reversing.
Corrections
- Quote wording: Transcript says 'my general expectation of course is that the ethereum Bitcoin valuation will break down' — he did not say 'I think' in this clause, and 'I think' contradicts the recorded certainty marker 'my general expectation'. Trim to his exact asserted words; the marker lives in certainty.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The ETH/BTC ratio will break down (Ethereum will underperfo…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources