Prediction record
MissmarketsThe S&P 500 will roll over (turn down) sometime in the first half of 2023
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“I still think it'll roll over sometime in the first half of next year.”
The S&P 500 will roll over (turn down) sometime in the first half of 2023
- Made on
- 2022-12-16
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.62
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-06-30
The S&P 500 makes a local high and declines meaningfully (≥10% peak-to-trough) at some point during 2023-01-01 to 2023-06-30.
The written criterion requires a local high followed by a ≥10% peak-to-trough decline during 2023-01-01 to 2023-06-30. The largest H1 2023 drawdown (the March SVB dip) was only ~8% closing / ~9% intraday, and the index finished the half at a new local high (4,450). The 'roll over in H1 2023' thesis did not materialize — criterion NOT met. resolved_on set to the end of the evaluation window (2023-06-30). Exact daily closes (Feb 2 ~4,179.76; Mar 13 ~3,855.76; Jun 30 4,450.38) are from standard S&P 500 index history; no conflicting credible evidence.
Sources
S&P 500: Rejection
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
In H1 2023 the S&P 500 made a local high near 4,180 (close, Feb 2, 2023; ~4,195 intraday) and its deepest subsequent decline in the window was the SVB banking-stress selloff, bottoming around a March 13, 2023 close of ~3,856 (intraday ~3,809). That is roughly a 7.8% peak-to-trough decline on a closing basis (~9.2% intraday) — short of the ≥10% required by the criterion.
Rather than rolling over, the S&P 500 rallied through the first half, closing H1 2023 at 4,450.38 on June 30, 2023 — up ~16% year-to-date and roughly +6% above the February local high — confirming no sustained downturn occurred in the window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.62- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.62
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The S&P 500 will roll over (turn down) sometime in the firs…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources