Prediction record
Hitcrypto2023 will be a tough year for altcoins driven by regulatory pressure
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“I think 2023 is probably going to be a tough year for altcoins in in the context of these regulations. Once we get to 2024, and maybe even late 2023, I'm going to take off my maxi hat, and I'm going to I'll probably degen back into the altcoin market”
2023 will be a tough year for altcoins driven by regulatory pressure
- Made on
- 2023-01-13
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
During 2023, altcoins face material regulatory pressure (e.g. enforcement actions treating tokens as securities) and broadly underperform.
Both prongs of the criterion are documented: (a) material regulatory pressure with enforcement actions treating tokens as securities (SEC vs Binance/Coinbase, June 2023, plus 10 state actions); (b) altcoins broadly underperformed BTC (rising BTC dominance all year). Note: BTC itself rose ~155% in 2023, so 'tough year' applies to altcoins relative to BTC, not to nominal USD price of all crypto. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Bitcoin Dominance
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
On June 5, 2023 the SEC sued Binance and on June 6, 2023 sued Coinbase, explicitly alleging numerous listed tokens were unregistered securities (the Coinbase complaint named ~13 crypto assets as securities; the Binance complaint named ~10+, e.g. SOL, ADA, MATIC, SAND, ATOM). Coinbase had received a Wells Notice in March 2023, and 10 U.S. state securities regulators brought parallel actions in June 2023. This is material 2023 regulatory pressure treating altcoins as securities.
Coinbase FY2023 10-K/10-Q disclosures document the SEC enforcement suit and Wells Notice regarding tokens listed on its platform being alleged unregistered securities.
Broad altcoin underperformance vs BTC in 2023: Bitcoin dominance rose from ~40% to ~52-54% across 2023 (3rd consecutive year of rising dominance, annual average 45.6%), i.e. altcoins collectively lagged BTC through the year.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
2023 will be a tough year for altcoins driven by regulatory…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources