Prediction record
MissmarketsThe crypto market trades mostly sideways over 2023, ending the year roughly flat with deviations both up and down.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“2023, my general expectation is that it's mostly going to be remembered as sideways, but I think we will have deviations to the upside and the downside.”
The crypto market trades mostly sideways over 2023, ending the year roughly flat with deviations both up and down.
- Made on
- 2023-01-09
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
Total crypto market / Bitcoin closes 2023 within roughly ±15% of its yearly open, with no sustained bull or bear trend for the year.
Criterion: close within roughly ±15% of yearly open with no sustained trend. BTC finished ~+155%, roughly 2.5x, a clear sustained multi-month uptrend. Well outside the stated tolerance band.
Sources
Weighting your cryptocurrency portfolio: Lessons from the last market cycle
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin opened 2023 at ~$16,625 (Jan 1 close) and ended at ~$42,265 (Dec 31, 2023 close) — a full-year gain of ~+155%, far outside the ±15% band and constituting a sustained upward trend, not sideways/flat action.
Corrections
- Quote wording: Align verbatim to the actual transcript wording; the current text compresses 'my general expectation is that it's mostly...' into 'is mostly...'. Meaning unchanged; keeps verbatim faithful to the caption.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The crypto market trades mostly sideways over 2023, ending…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources