Prediction record
MisseconomyFederal Reserve rate-hike effects will start showing up as a rising unemployment rate over the next few months
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“I think we are going to start feeling the effects of the rate hikes over the next few months and the only question will be is how big of a hit does it make to the unemployment rate like how big of a hit does it make”
Federal Reserve rate-hike effects will start showing up as a rising unemployment rate over the next few months
- Made on
- 2023-01-14
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-08-04
The US unemployment rate rises noticeably above its Jan-2023 level by ~mid-2023.
Primary BLS data: Jan 2023 = 3.4%, July 2023 = 3.5% (+0.1 pp), essentially flat and still near multi-decade lows through mid-2023. Rate-hike effects did not show up as a noticeable rise in unemployment by ~mid-2023. Evidence points to not met. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Total Nonfarm Employees
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BLS Employment Situation: US unemployment rate was 3.4% in January 2023 (a 53-year low).
BLS Employment Situation: US unemployment rate was 3.5% in July 2023 (released Aug 4, 2023). The rate ranged only 3.4-3.7% across the first half of 2023.
BLS Monthly Labor Review confirms the unemployment rate merely 'inched up' during 2023, ending the year near 3.7% — no noticeable H1 rise.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Federal Reserve rate-hike effects will start showing up as…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources