Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin will tag its lower logarithmic regression trend line before the next halving
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“It'll probably occur before the next having, uh, whether that means we go sideways into it or we go down into it.”
Bitcoin will tag its lower logarithmic regression trend line before the next halving
- Made on
- 2023-03-01
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-04-20
BTC price touches its lower log-regression trend line at some point before the April 2024 halving.
Most objective of the three. The lower log-regression trend line is well below the 2023–24 price range, and BTC's post-claim low (~$24.9k) never got near it before rallying to a pre-halving ATH. The 'tag the lower trend line before the halving' condition did not occur within the window (halving 2024-04-19/20, deadline 2024-04-30). Do not assign outcome/score here.
Sources
Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics (Part 33)
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
From the 2023-03-01 claim date onward BTC only rose: post-March-2023 low was ~$24.9k (Sept 2023), then a sustained rally to a new ATH of $73,800 on 2024-03-12 and ~$63.8k on the halving day (2024-04-19/20). Price never approached the lower log-regression trend line (which sat far below the 2023–24 range) before the halving.
October 2023 marked a decisive upside breakout (+27% to ~$35k) out of the 2023 chop range, confirming price moved away from — not toward — the lower band ahead of the April 2024 halving.
Corrections
- tags: Bitcoin price-level (trend-line touch) claim → 'crypto' primary; 'markets' kept secondary.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin will tag its lower logarithmic regression trend lin…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-03-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources