Prediction record
MisseconomyThe Federal Reserve is done raising rates; the hiking cycle is over.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“my base case is that they're done”
The Federal Reserve is done raising rates; the hiking cycle is over.
- Made on
- 2023-03-22
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.62
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
The Fed does not raise its target rate again after 2023-03-22 (no further hikes in 2023).
Criterion: no further hikes after 2023-03-22. The disconfirming event first occurred at the May 3, 2023 hike; a second hike followed July 26, 2023. Fully determinable. Outcome assignment left to scoring stage.
Sources
FOMC and Bitcoin
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
After the March 22, 2023 meeting, the Fed raised its target range AGAIN on May 3, 2023 (to 5.00%-5.25%) and once more on July 26, 2023 (to 5.25%-5.50%). So there were two further hikes in 2023 following the prediction date.
Timeline of 2023 FOMC actions confirms hikes in Feb, March, May and July 2023 (holds thereafter). The hiking cycle was not over as of March 22, 2023; two 25bp hikes followed.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.62- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.62
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Federal Reserve is done raising rates; the hiking cycle…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-03-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources