Prediction record
MisscryptoA majority of altcoins, including Ethereum, bottom against Bitcoin by September 2023
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“a lot of altcoins including ethereum by the way which I don't really consider not but including ethereum did not bottom until the end of the third quarter of the pre-halving year so for this time that would correspond to say September of 2023”
A majority of altcoins, including Ethereum, bottom against Bitcoin by September 2023
- Made on
- 2023-04-30
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.33
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-12-31
most major altcoins (incl. ETH/BTC) put in their cycle low against BTC on or before 2023-09-30 and do not make sustained new lower lows vs BTC afterward
Deadline was 2023-09-30 but the written criterion has a forward-looking 'do not make sustained new lower lows vs BTC afterward' clause, which can only be judged with post-deadline data — now available through mid-2026. ETH/BTC's decline is decisive and primary to the criterion (ETH is named explicitly). resolved_on set to 2024-12-31 as the conservative point by which sustained new lower lows vs BTC were unambiguously established; the 0.0177 extreme came 2025-04-09. 'Majority of altcoins' is fuzzy, but the explicitly-named ETH condition alone falsifies the claim. No outcome value assigned (later stage).
Sources
Bitcoin Dominance
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The criterion requires major altcoins — explicitly including ETH/BTC — to bottom against Bitcoin by 2023-09-30 and NOT make sustained new lower lows vs BTC afterward. ETH/BTC did the opposite: it was ~0.060–0.063 through 2023, then fell through 2024 as spot-BTC-ETF inflows (Jan 2024) and the post-election BTC surge (Nov 2024) drove Bitcoin's outperformance, reaching a multi-year low. By late 2024 ETH/BTC was decisively and durably below its Sept-2023 level — a sustained new lower low vs BTC, falsifying the 'do not make sustained new lower lows' condition.
ETH/BTC ultimately bottomed at 0.01770 on 2025-04-09 (below the 0.02 level last seen in Feb 2020), and the 2025 yearly average (~0.027) was a five-year low. This confirms the post-Sept-2023 low was NOT the cycle low vs BTC; ETH kept making sustained new lower lows against BTC for well over a year afterward. The broader altcoin market similarly underperformed BTC (rising BTC dominance, no 2024 'altseason'), so the 'majority of altcoins bottomed vs BTC by Sept 2023' framing also fails.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.33- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.33
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
A majority of altcoins, including Ethereum, bottom against…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-04-30
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources