Prediction record
HiteconomyUS inflation declines notably through Q2–Q4 2023
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“I have a feeling I have a feeling inflation is going to really start to come back down”
US inflation declines notably through Q2–Q4 2023
- Made on
- 2023-04-27
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.77
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
US headline CPI year-over-year falls materially across Q2–Q4 2023 (multiple months of declining YoY prints) relative to Q1 2023
Directly on-criterion. Headline CPI YoY declined materially and across multiple months from the Q1 2023 baseline (~5–6.4%) to 3.0% by June 2023, remaining in the low-3% range through Q4. Deadline 2023-12-31; resolved_on set to window close, though the material decline was already evident by the June 2023 print (released 2023-07-12).
Sources
Bitcoin On-Chain Risk
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BLS CPI: US headline CPI YoY ran ~6% in Q1 2023 (Jan 6.4%, Feb 6.0%, Mar 5.0%), then fell materially across Q2–Q4 with a continuous declining sequence Feb→Jun (Apr 4.9%, May 4.0%, Jun 3.0%). Multiple consecutive months of declining YoY prints; June's 3.0% was ~half the Q1 level. Second half held in the 3.1–3.7% range (Jul 3.2, Aug 3.7, Sep 3.7, Oct 3.2, Nov 3.1, Dec 3.4), all well below Q1. Criterion (material YoY decline across Q2–Q4 vs Q1, multiple declining prints) satisfied.
BLS CPI January 2023 release: 6.4% over the prior 12 months, establishing the Q1 baseline that YoY prints subsequently fell from.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.77- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.77
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
US inflation declines notably through Q2–Q4 2023- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-04-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources