Prediction record
MisseconomyThe US will enter a recession by early 2024
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“I think we'll have a recession and sort of the latter part of this year or early 2024 at the latest”
The US will enter a recession by early 2024
- Made on
- 2023-04-13
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.77
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-03-31
The US economy enters a recession (NBER-dated, or two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP) with onset by end of Q1 2024.
Criterion ('US enters a recession — NBER-dated, or two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP — with onset by end of Q1 2024') is NOT met under either the NBER standard or the two-quarters technical proxy. Some real-time indicators (Sahm rule, yield curve) flashed warnings mid-2024, but no recession materialized in the window. Resolved as not-occurred; outcome/scoring deferred.
Sources
Fed Projecting a Mild Recession
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee has dated NO US recession with an onset in 2023 or Q1 2024; the last dated recession ended in April 2020. NBER (not the two-quarters rule) is the official arbiter.
Real GDP was positive through the window — Q4 2023 (+3.4% annualized) and Q1 2024 (~+1.4-1.6% annualized) both grew — so there were no two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP with onset by end of Q1 2024. Even the alternate technical definition fails.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.77- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.77
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The US will enter a recession by early 2024- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-04-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources