Prediction record
MissmarketsIf Bitcoin rallies at all in 2023, that rally / yearly high occurs in H1 2023 (by end of June).
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“if Bitcoin is to push higher this year, I would imagine it would occur during the first half of the year as the second half of the year, just like we saw in 2019, is likely going to be more so a narrative related to recession probabilities actually going up”
If Bitcoin rallies at all in 2023, that rally / yearly high occurs in H1 2023 (by end of June).
- Made on
- 2023-05-17
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.31
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
Conditional on Bitcoin posting a 2023 high above its year-open level, that yearly high is set on or before 2023-06-30.
The record's own deadline (2023-06-30) precedes when a 'yearly high' can be fully determined; the claim is inherently only resolvable at year-end. It resolved against the claim: BTC's H1 high (~$31k, April 2023) was exceeded in late 2023, with the true yearly high on 2023-12-05. resolved_on set to 2023-12-31 (year-end confirmation); the H1 high was decisively surpassed by ~late October / early December 2023.
Sources
Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin's 2023 high above its ~$16,600 year-open was ~$44,130, set on 2023-12-05 (H2). Its best H1 2023 level was only ~$31,000 (April 2023). The yearly high therefore fell in H2, not on or before 2023-06-30 — falsifying the conditional claim.
Corroboration: 2023 monthly/yearly price summaries confirm the year's peak in December 2023 (~$44k), materially above the H1 peak (~$31k in April), with year-close ~$42.6k.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: The condition 'Bitcoin posts a meaningful 2023 rally' objectively occurred (BTC rose from ~$16,600 year-open to ~$44,130), so Y must be scored (not void). condition_met=null is inconsistent with the 'resolved' status.
- Quote wording: Fetched-primary transcript says 'is to push higher', not 'is going to push higher'; verbatim must match the source word-for-word.
Score contribution
+0.31- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.31
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
If Bitcoin rallies at all in 2023, that rally / yearly high…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-05-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources