Prediction record
25% outcomecryptoBitcoin inscription and transaction-fee activity falls off in the second half of 2023 and does not sustainably recover until 2024
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
25% outcomecrypto“as we get into the second half of the year I think you'll likely see interest sort of fall off”
Bitcoin inscription and transaction-fee activity falls off in the second half of 2023 and does not sustainably recover until 2024
- Made on
- 2023-05-13
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.79
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
Bitcoin inscription/ordinals and transaction-fee activity declines in H2 2023 and does not return to a sustained uptrend before 2024
Deadline 2023-12-31 elapsed; evidence is clear. The claim had two parts: (1) inscription/fee activity DECLINES in H2 2023 — partially true (fees fell off after the May 2023 peak through summer 2023); and (2) does NOT return to a sustained uptrend before 2024 — clearly FALSE. Activity surged to a 2-year high in December 2023, well before year-end. The decisive second clause of the written criterion is contradicted by primary market/on-chain reporting. No outcome value assigned here; scorer should weigh the falsified second clause, which is the operative part of the criterion.
Sources
Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis: Transaction Fees
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
CoinDesk (Dec 18, 2023): Bitcoin transaction fees spiked to a ~2-year high in December 2023 as an Ordinals/inscriptions bonanza gave miners windfall profits — the OPPOSITE of a sustained decline; per-block fees reached ~3.3 BTC by Dec 16, 2023.
Decrypt/Blockonomi: early December 2023 saw average fees surge to ~$27–$37 (highest since April 2021), 1.2M+ new inscriptions created over one weekend and ~250k–300k unconfirmed txs, i.e. inscription and fee activity returned to a strong uptrend BEFORE 2024, not after.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.79- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- 25% outcome
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.79
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin inscription and transaction-fee activity falls off…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-05-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources