Prediction record
MissmarketsBitcoin trades mostly lower / net-declining across H2 2023.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“the second half of the year, I I I think will again mostly be down for for Bitcoin”
Bitcoin trades mostly lower / net-declining across H2 2023.
- Made on
- 2023-05-17
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
Bitcoin closes 2023-12-31 below its 2023-06-30 level, spending the majority of H2 2023 in net-declining/fading price action.
Criterion (12/31 close BELOW 6/30 level, majority of H2 net-declining) is clearly NOT satisfied: 12/31 close (~$42.3k) was ~39% above the 6/30 close (~$30.4k), and the second half trended upward. Evidence is decisive against the claim. (Outcome value not assigned per stage separation.)
Sources
Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BTC closed 2023-06-30 at ~$30,447 and 2023-12-31 at ~$42,255 — a ~38.8% GAIN across H2 2023. BTC finished the year well ABOVE its mid-year level, the opposite of the claimed net decline.
The direction of H2 was up, not fading: BTC surged 27%+ in October 2023 (breaking $35k on Oct 23) on spot-ETF optimism and continued higher into December — H2 was dominated by an uptrend, not net-declining price action.
Corrections
- Quote wording: Fetched-primary transcript reads 'and so the second half of the year, I I I think will again mostly be down for for Bitcoin'; the verbatim's leading 'I think ' is a fabricated insertion. Retained 'I I I think' still supports certainty.verbatim_marker='I think'.
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin trades mostly lower / net-declining across H2 2023.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-05-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources