Prediction record
MisseconomyThe inverted US Treasury yield curve un-inverts (resolves) at some point before the April 2024 Bitcoin halving.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“Between now and the next having we will likely see some some type of resolution to to the to the inverted yield curve and and that will be sort of the secondary scare for Bitcoin.”
The inverted US Treasury yield curve un-inverts (resolves) at some point before the April 2024 Bitcoin halving.
- Made on
- 2023-05-15
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-04-30
The 10Y-2Y (or 10Y-3M) US Treasury spread returns to ≥0 at least once between 2023-05-15 and the April 2024 halving.
Criterion offered either the 10Y-2Y OR the 10Y-3M spread; both stayed strictly inverted through the April 2024 halving (~2024-04-19/20). Neither returned to ≥0 in the window, so the claim is falsified. resolved_on set to the record deadline (2024-04-30), by which the halving had passed with no un-inversion.
Sources
Bitcoin: Year-To-Date ROI
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The 10Y-2Y Treasury spread (FRED T10Y2Y) remained continuously inverted (negative) from July 2022 until it returned to ≥0 only in ~September/October 2024 — well AFTER the April 2024 Bitcoin halving. It never reached ≥0 between 2023-05-15 and the halving.
The 10Y-3M spread (the criterion's alternative measure) stayed inverted even longer, from October 2022 until ~December 13, 2024 — also never un-inverting before the April 2024 halving.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The inverted US Treasury yield curve un-inverts (resolves)…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-05-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources