Prediction record
HitcryptoBitcoin falls below its 20-week SMA (bull market support band) at some point during Q3 2023
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“the most likely outcome at some point in the next two months would be for Bitcoin to fall below the 20 week estimate”
Bitcoin falls below its 20-week SMA (bull market support band) at some point during Q3 2023
- Made on
- 2023-07-31
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-08-20
Bitcoin records at least one weekly close below its 20-week SMA between 2023-08-01 and 2023-09-30
Criterion 'at least one weekly close below the 20-week SMA between 2023-08-01 and 2023-09-30' WAS met (multiple such closes, roughly $25.9k close vs ~$27.5–28k SMA). resolved_on set to the first qualifying weekly close (~week ending 2023-08-20). (No o/score assigned.)
Sources
Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
After the 2023-08-17 sell-off, Bitcoin lost the bull market support band (20-week SMA / 21-week EMA). BTC's weekly closes in late Aug–Sep 2023 printed around $25,900–$26,100 (e.g. Aug 31 2023 close ~$25,931), while the 20-week SMA at that time sat in the ~$27,500–$28,000 region (BTC had ranged ~$26k–$31k over the prior 20 weeks). Multiple weekly closes therefore fell below the 20-week SMA, and BTC did not reclaim the band until October 2023.
Contemporary reporting/analysis confirms Bitcoin fell below and then later 'reclaimed' the bull-market-support-band (20W SMA + 21W EMA) during 2023, i.e. it traded below the band in the Aug–Sep 2023 window before recovering it later in the year.
Corrections
- tags: Crypto price/level bet: 'crypto' primary + 'markets' secondary per tag rules.
Score contribution
+1.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin falls below its 20-week SMA (bull market support ba…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-07-31
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources