Prediction record
MissmarketsThe second half of 2023 will fade and turn negative for Bitcoin, leaving BTC lower at year-end than at the start of H2.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“That would be my most likely outcome.”
The second half of 2023 will fade and turn negative for Bitcoin, leaving BTC lower at year-end than at the start of H2.
- Made on
- 2023-07-03
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-31
BTC price on 2023-12-31 is lower than at the start of H2 2023 (~2023-07-01).
Fully resolvable. Endpoint comparison: 2023-12-31 (~$42,255) > 2023-07-01 (~$30,597). BTC ended H2 2023 HIGHER, not lower — the criterion's stated condition (year-end below start-of-H2) did NOT occur. Recording the factual endpoints only; outcome value/scoring left to the later stage.
Sources
Bitcoin Pre-Halving Year Returns
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The second half of 2023 will fade and turn negative for Bit…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-07-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources