Prediction record

Missmarkets

Bitcoin will not make a new 2023 high — its next high is a lower high, no daily close above the 2023 year-to-date peak before 2023-12-31

A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .

VideoPrimary sourcemarkets

Scored record

Missmarkets

I think it's unlikely for us to put in a a new yearly high.

Bitcoin will not make a new 2023 high — its next high is a lower high, no daily close above the 2023 year-to-date peak before 2023-12-31

Made on
2023-10-03
Outcome
Miss
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
-0.84

Criterion

Resolution status
resolved
Resolved on
2023-12-05

Bitcoin/USD does not exceed its 2023 year-to-date peak price at any point between made_on and 2023-12-31 (i.e., the year's high is already in).

Claim (Bitcoin's next high is a lower high; the 2023 year-high is already in) is contradicted. BTC exceeded its July 2023 YTD peak from ~late October 2023 onward and set a new 2023 high in December. No conflicting credible evidence.

Sources

  • Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

    YouTube ·

    Source

Outcome evidence

  • Bitcoin's 2023 pre-October peak was ~$31,800 (mid-July 2023). After the 2023-10-03 utterance, BTC broke above that level in late October and continued higher, reaching a 2023 high of ~$44,130-$44,705 on 2023-12-05. It closed the year at $42,265.19 (Dec 31 2023). BTC therefore DID make a new 2023 high and closed well above its year-to-date peak on many daily closes before 2023-12-31 — the criterion (no daily close above the 2023 YTD peak) is not met.

    Evidence

  • Secondary confirmation: Bitcoin's highest 2023 price was $44,129.56 on Dec 5 2023 (BTC high ~$44,705 in December), far above July's ~$29-31k, confirming a new 2023 high was made in Q4.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Score contribution

-0.84
Confidence
80%
Outcome
Miss
Importance
3 / 5
Contribution
-0.84

This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Provenance

Bitcoin will not make a new 2023 high — its next high is a…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
July 18, 2026
Made on
2023-10-03

How this profile was built

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Evidence firstMethodology