Prediction record
MisscryptoEthereum (USD) drops below $1,200 within roughly two and a half months
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“I think the most likely outcome is for ethereum to drop below $1,200 within the next two and a half months”
Ethereum (USD) drops below $1,200 within roughly two and a half months
- Made on
- 2023-10-10
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-25
ETH/USD trades below $1,200 at any point on or before ~2024-01-02.
ETH stayed well above $1,200 for the entire window (window low in the mid-$1,500s, year-end close $2,281). Claim (ETH drops below $1,200) not met. No conflicting credible evidence.
Sources
Bitcoin: Social Risk
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Over the window 2023-10-18 to ~2024-01-02, ETH/USD never traded below $1,200. At the 2023-10-18 utterance ETH was ~$1,550-1,600; it rallied through 'Uptober' past $1,800, held above ~$1,900 in November, and closed 2023 at $2,281.47. Its window low was roughly the mid-$1,500s, far above $1,200 — the criterion (ETH below $1,200 at any point on/before ~2024-01-02) is not met.
Confirming trend: ETH recovered from sub-$1,600 in early October 2023 up toward $1,900+ and continued higher into year-end; no dip below $1,200 occurred in Q4 2023 or early January 2024.
Corrections
- Date: Utterance date is the true source video's upload date.
- horizon deadline: 'within the next two and a half months' anchored from corrected made_on 2023-10-10.
- resolution resolved on: Align resolution date with corrected window end; outcome (not met) unchanged.
- tags: Crypto price bet → crypto primary, markets secondary.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Ethereum (USD) drops below $1,200 within roughly two and a…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-10-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources