Prediction record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in 2023
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“I'm under the assumption that the FED will not pivot this year the only way they would pivot is if there's some massive windfall event like if the S&P were to drop 20% this you know before the end of the year then yeah like the FED would probably pivot this year but assuming there's no light you know assuming there's no massive windfall event like that then I think the most likely outcome is is the Fed not pivoting this year and perhaps uh the the pivot would would come sometime next year”
The Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in 2023
- Made on
- 2023-10-31
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-12-13
The FOMC does not lower the federal funds target range at any meeting in calendar year 2023.
Criterion clearly met: the FOMC did not lower the federal funds target range at any 2023 meeting. resolved_on set to the last FOMC meeting of 2023 (Dec 13, 2023), after which no further 2023 action was possible.
Sources
S&P 500 Outlook
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The July 26, 2023 FOMC hike to a 5.25%-5.50% target range was the final rate move of 2023; the Fed then held rates steady at all subsequent 2023 meetings (Sept 20, Nov 1, Dec 13) and did not cut at any point during calendar year 2023.
Primary source: FOMC statement for the July 26, 2023 meeting setting the 5.25%-5.50% range; no lower target range was set by the FOMC for the remainder of 2023 (confirmable via the Fed's federal funds target range upper-limit series, DFEDTARU, which held at 5.50% through year-end 2023).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.68- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in 2023- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-10-31
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources