Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin will back-test its 100-week moving average within the first few months of 2024.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“I do think that at some point probably within the first few months of 2024 we'll see some type of back test of that 100 we moving average”
Bitcoin will back-test its 100-week moving average within the first few months of 2024.
- Made on
- 2023-12-29
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.56
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-03-31
Bitcoin's price touches or trades down to its 100-week moving average at some point within roughly the first three months of 2024.
The 100-week MA (~$30k–$32k) was never touched: Bitcoin's Q1 2024 low (~$38.5k) stayed roughly 20–25% above it, and price rose to a new ATH (~$73.7k) by mid-March rather than backtesting downward. The claimed backtest did not occur within the first three months of 2024. The precise 100-week SMA value is a derived estimate (Crypto.com/exchange APIs return only recent candles; the BM Pro chart is interactive/not machine-readable), but the ~$6.5k+ gap between the Q1 low and any plausible 100-week SMA level is large enough that the non-occurrence is unambiguous. Outcome value (o) not assigned at this stage.
Sources
Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin's lowest price in Q1 2024 was ~$38,500 intraday (closing lows ~$39,500 on Jan 22–23, 2024). From that dip BTC rallied continuously, reaching a then-all-time high of ~$73,700 on March 13, 2024. Price trended UP through the window and never traded down after late January.
Bitcoin's 100-week simple moving average sat far below spot throughout early 2024 — approximately $30,000–$32,000 (the trailing ~100 weekly closes spanned the 2022 bear market at $16k–$30k plus 2023's $16k–$44k recovery). BTC traded well ABOVE its 100-week SMA for the entire period; the metric was cited as reclaimed macro support, not a level price approached.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-0.56- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.56
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin will back-test its 100-week moving average within t…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-12-29
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources