Prediction record
HitcryptoBitcoin dominance keeps rising until the Federal Reserve returns to looser monetary policy (first rate cut).
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“Bitcoin dominance should go up until we get back to looser monetary policy”
Bitcoin dominance keeps rising until the Federal Reserve returns to looser monetary policy (first rate cut).
- Made on
- 2024-01-07
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-09-18
Bitcoin dominance is higher than its ~2024-01-07 level at the point the Fed delivers its first rate cut.
Directionally unambiguous: BTC dominance was higher at the first Fed cut (2024-09-18) than at the ~2024-01-07 level, satisfying the criterion. Caveat on exact figures: BTC.D values differ by source depending on whether stablecoins/altcoin universe are included (CoinMarketCap vs TradingView vs CoinGecko), so absolute levels (~49% vs ~52% in Jan; ~56% vs ~58% in Sep) vary — but every source agrees dominance rose ~4-8 points over the interval. The claim's open-ended 'keeps rising until the first cut' framing is treated as resolved at the first-cut date; intra-period monotonicity was not strictly continuous but the endpoint comparison holds.
Sources
Bitcoin Dominance
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut of the cycle on 2024-09-18, a 50bps cut — the anchor date for the criterion.
Bitcoin dominance rose over 2024: it sat around the low-50s%/~49-52% in early January 2024 and had climbed to roughly 56-58% by mid-to-late September 2024, i.e. higher at the point of the first Fed cut than at the ~2024-01-07 baseline. Contemporary coverage framed the rate-cut cycle as a *threat* to the ongoing dominance uptrend, confirming dominance was elevated at that point.
Corrections
- tags: Claim subject is Bitcoin dominance; 'crypto' fits and matches the sibling btc-dominance-peak record. The monetary-policy trigger doesn't make the subject 'economy'.
Score contribution
+1.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin dominance keeps rising until the Federal Reserve re…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-01-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources