Prediction record
HitcryptoThe ETH/BTC ratio breaks down (ETH underperforms BTC), making a new lower low by the end of H1 2024.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“I'm thinking the first half of the year is my best guess sometime in in H1 of of the having year is when ether Bitcoin will break down”
The ETH/BTC ratio breaks down (ETH underperforms BTC), making a new lower low by the end of H1 2024.
- Made on
- 2024-01-21
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.19
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-05-16
The ETH/BTC ratio falls below its January 2024 low (~0.049) at some point on or before 2024-06-30.
Criterion (ETH/BTC falls below its January 2024 low, ~0.049, on or before 2024-06-30) is satisfied: the January low was ~0.048, and the ratio set a fresh multi-year low of ~0.0456 on 2024-05-16, below both 0.049 and the January print. The move fully predates the H1 deadline. Exact tick differs slightly by exchange/index (0.0456 Binance; some feeds ~0.045-0.046), but all cross below the January low.
Sources
Bitcoin: Short-Term Bubble Risk
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
January 2024 ETH/BTC low reference: on 2024-01-09 the ratio dropped to ~0.048, then its lowest since May 2021, establishing the January low near the criterion's ~0.049 anchor.
A new lower low was made in H1: on 2024-05-16 the ETH/BTC ratio slid to ~0.04563 on Binance, its lowest level since April 2021 — below the January 2024 low — amid ether's underperformance ahead of the (then-uncertain) spot ETH ETF decision. This preceded the 2024-05-20/23 ETF-approval pump that lifted the ratio back above ~0.05.
Corrections
- Date: Verbatim actually spoken in a4vwS_U2OfM (upload 2024-01-21), not the cited 2024-01-23 video.
- tags: ETH/BTC is a cryptocurrency-pair call: crypto primary, markets secondary per tag-dictionary boundary rule.
Score contribution
+1.19- Confidence
- 55%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.19
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The ETH/BTC ratio breaks down (ETH underperforms BTC), maki…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-01-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources