Prediction record

Hiteconomy

US headline (CPI) inflation continues to decline over the following months, aided by falling shelter inflation.

A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .

VideoPrimary sourceeconomy

Scored record

Hiteconomy

I still think that housing inflation will continue to drop.

US headline (CPI) inflation continues to decline over the following months, aided by falling shelter inflation.

Made on
2024-01-14
Outcome
Hit
Importance
4 / 5
Contribution
+3.02

Criterion

Resolution status
resolved
Resolved on
2024-07-11

US headline CPI year-over-year prints below its January 2024 level (~3.1%) at some point on or before 2025-01-14.

January 2024 CPI YoY baseline was ~3.1%. Criterion (headline CPI YoY prints below the Jan 2024 level at some point on or before 2025-01-14) was first met with the June 2024 print (3.0%) and reinforced by July 2024 (2.9%) and subsequent months (2.5% Aug, 2.4% Sep 2024). resolved_on set to the June 2024 CPI release date (2024-07-11), when the first sub-3.1% print occurred. No conflicting credible evidence. Outcome value (o) and scoring deferred to later stage.

Sources

  • CPI Report

    YouTube ·

    Source

Outcome evidence

  • US headline CPI rose 3.0% year-over-year in June 2024 (BLS report released 2024-07-11), the first print below the ~3.1% January 2024 baseline and the smallest annual increase since early 2024, satisfying the criterion.

    Evidence

  • Over the year ended July 2024, CPI-U rose 2.9% — the first time since March 2021 the 12-month increase was below 3.0% — confirming continued decline well under the January 2024 level, with shelter cited as a key contributor.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Score contribution

+3.02
Confidence
65%
Outcome
Hit
Importance
4 / 5
Contribution
+3.02

This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Provenance

US headline (CPI) inflation continues to decline over the f…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
July 18, 2026
Made on
2024-01-14

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Evidence firstMethodology