Prediction record
HiteconomyUS headline (CPI) inflation continues to decline over the following months, aided by falling shelter inflation.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“I still think that housing inflation will continue to drop.”
US headline (CPI) inflation continues to decline over the following months, aided by falling shelter inflation.
- Made on
- 2024-01-14
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.02
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-07-11
US headline CPI year-over-year prints below its January 2024 level (~3.1%) at some point on or before 2025-01-14.
January 2024 CPI YoY baseline was ~3.1%. Criterion (headline CPI YoY prints below the Jan 2024 level at some point on or before 2025-01-14) was first met with the June 2024 print (3.0%) and reinforced by July 2024 (2.9%) and subsequent months (2.5% Aug, 2.4% Sep 2024). resolved_on set to the June 2024 CPI release date (2024-07-11), when the first sub-3.1% print occurred. No conflicting credible evidence. Outcome value (o) and scoring deferred to later stage.
Sources
CPI Report
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
US headline CPI rose 3.0% year-over-year in June 2024 (BLS report released 2024-07-11), the first print below the ~3.1% January 2024 baseline and the smallest annual increase since early 2024, satisfying the criterion.
Over the year ended July 2024, CPI-U rose 2.9% — the first time since March 2021 the 12-month increase was below 3.0% — confirming continued decline well under the January 2024 level, with shelter cited as a key contributor.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+3.02- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.02
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
US headline (CPI) inflation continues to decline over the f…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-01-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources