Prediction record
HitmarketsBitcoin puts in a local price top in April 2024
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“Bitcoin will put in a local top sometime around April”
Bitcoin puts in a local price top in April 2024
- Made on
- 2024-03-28
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-05-06
BTC/USD forms a local top (a high not exceeded for >=4 weeks) during April 2024.
Clean resolution. Criterion = a high not exceeded for >=4 weeks formed during April. The Apr 8, 2024 high (~$71.6k close) was not exceeded through early June (June 6 close $70,757 was lower), satisfying the >=4-week condition. Resolved_on set to 2024-05-06, four weeks after the Apr 8 top, the point at which the >=4-week no-exceedance condition became confirmable. (The March 14 ATH of ~$73,750 sits above the April high, which is consistent with it being a *local*, not absolute, top.)
Sources
Bitcoin: Market Cycle Theory (Normal Cycle or Left Translated?)
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BTC daily-close data (StatMuse) shows an April 2024 local top on Apr 8, 2024 at $71,631 close (intraday ~$72k), the highest close of the month; BTC then fell, closing April at $60,637 (-15% for the month).
The Apr 8 high was not exceeded for well over 4 weeks: BTC traded in the ~$56.5k-$67k range through late April and May, and the subsequent June rebound peaked at only $70,757 close on Jun 6, 2024 — still below the April 8 level.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.86- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin puts in a local price top in April 2024- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-03-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources