Prediction record
HitmarketsThe US Dollar Index (DXY) finds a low and reverses higher during the late-April through July 2024 period
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“potentially one more pullback by the dollar followed by a move back up as we get into late April May June July”
The US Dollar Index (DXY) finds a low and reverses higher during the late-April through July 2024 period
- Made on
- 2024-03-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-07-31
DXY puts in a low and trades higher, closing above its 2024-03-08 level, at some point during late-April through July 2024.
Criterion (DXY puts in a low, reverses higher, and closes above its 2024-03-08 level at some point during late-April through July 2024) is met: the dollar's 2024 low was set in early-mid March and by mid-April onward DXY traded ~104-106, comfortably above the ~102.7 Mar-8 level, for the entire late-April-to-July window. Exact daily-close figures (Mar 8 ~102.7; mid/late-April ~105.5-106) could not be pinned to a single machine-readable primary CSV via WebFetch (Stooq/StatMuse/macrotrends blocked or lacked the DXY series); resolution rests on well-documented dated market reporting of the March low and the April CPI-driven rally, which is directionally unambiguous. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Bitcoin Vs. DXY
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Around Fed Chair Powell's semiannual testimony (Mar 6-7) and the Mar 8, 2024 jobs report, the US Dollar Index fell to its 2024 low (roughly 102.3-102.7) — this is the ~Mar-8 reference level the criterion measures against.
After the hotter-than-expected March CPI (released Apr 10, 2024), DXY reversed sharply higher, reaching ~106 by mid-April 2024 (its highest since November 2023) and trading in a roughly 104-106 range through late April, May, June and July 2024 — closing well above the ~102.7 level of 2024-03-08 throughout the late-April-to-July window. Daily closes are on the ICE DXY historical record.
Corrections
- Quote wording: Stored verbatim a reconstruction; restore actual contiguous spoken words (present in context). Meaning unchanged.
- horizon type: 'late April May June July' is stated verbatim, so the window is explicit not inferred; basis and deadline 2024-07-31 unchanged.
Score contribution
+2.86- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The US Dollar Index (DXY) finds a low and reverses higher d…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-03-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources