Prediction record
MisscryptoETH/BTC will make its cycle bottom in summer 2024 (June, possibly July or August)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“my base case is that it bottoms in june okay that's my base case”
ETH/BTC will make its cycle bottom in summer 2024 (June, possibly July or August)
- Made on
- 2024-04-21
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-11-30
ETH/BTC prints a local low during June–August 2024 that is not undercut for the remainder of the 2024 cycle (a durable bottom in that window)
Criterion asks whether the June-Aug 2024 low was durable and 'not undercut for the remainder of the 2024 cycle.' It was undercut both within 2024 (Nov 2024 ~0.033 < summer ~0.040) and dramatically in 2025 (~0.018). Under either the calendar-2024 reading or the full-cycle reading, the summer low was NOT durable. resolved_on set to the Nov 2024 42-month-low print (first unambiguous intra-2024 undercut); note the deeper 2025 continuation. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Bitcoin Dominance
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
ETH/BTC did NOT put in a durable cycle bottom in summer 2024. The ratio's August 2024 high was ~0.04324 and it bottomed the Aug 5 crash near ~0.040; it then made LOWER lows after summer — ~0.038-0.039 by late September 2024 and a ~42-month low near 0.033 in November 2024 — undercutting the summer low within the 2024 calendar year itself.
The ETH/BTC downtrend continued well past 2024, reaching a multi-year cycle low of ~0.0177-0.018 on/around April 9, 2025 (levels last seen Feb 2020) — definitively invalidating any 'durable summer-2024 bottom' under a full-cycle reading of the criterion.
Corroboration that ETH kept underperforming BTC through 2024 into 2025 (spot ETH ETFs launched July 2024 did not reverse the ratio downtrend); ratio stayed below 0.05 continuously from July 2024.
Corrections
- Quote wording: Actual transcript wording; 'might find a bottom' understated Cowen's committed 'my base case is that it bottoms in june', which better supports the scoreable classification.
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
ETH/BTC will make its cycle bottom in summer 2024 (June, po…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-04-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources