Prediction record
75% outcomemarketsThe US stock market will set a seasonal low around day 145–150 of 2024 (approximately May 24–29, 2024)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
75% outcomemarkets“by about day 145 to 150 the market sets a low okay now currently we are on day what 114 about 114 or so um and so we're not quite there yet”
The US stock market will set a seasonal low around day 145–150 of 2024 (approximately May 24–29, 2024)
- Made on
- 2024-04-23
- Outcome
- 75% outcome
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.96
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-05-30
A major US index (S&P 500) prints a swing/local price low within roughly day 145–150 of 2024 (approximately May 24–29)
Criterion: a major US index (S&P 500) prints a swing/local low within roughly day 145-150 of 2024 (≈May 24-29). The actual local swing low printed May 30, 2024 (day 151) — about 1 day past the stated window; within the window the lowest point was May 29 (5,266.95) but price kept falling the next day, so the turning point itself fell just outside May 24-29. Very close (off by ~1-2 days). Whether 'around day 145-150' tolerates a day-151 turn is a scoring judgment; noted for the next stage. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
S&P 500 Outlook
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
S&P 500 daily closes across the predicted day-145-150 window (≈May 24-29, 2024): May 23 = 5,267.84; May 24 = 5,304.72; May 28 = 5,306.04; May 29 = 5,266.95; May 30 = 5,235.48; May 31 = 5,277.51. The index was declining through the window and printed its local swing-low CLOSE on May 30, 2024 (5,235.48 — day 151), then reversed higher.
May 30, 2024 (5,235.48) was the trough of the late-May pullback; the S&P 500 then rallied to fresh all-time highs (~5,487 by mid-June 2024), confirming May 30 as the local/swing low before the next up-leg (no lower low in early June).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.96- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- 75% outcome
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.96
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The US stock market will set a seasonal low around day 145–…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-04-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources