Prediction record
HitmarketsAltcoin/BTC pairs decline, following ETH/BTC lower, in the near term.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“alt-Bitcoin pairs are going to follow ETH Bitcoin down just like they did in 2019”
Altcoin/BTC pairs decline, following ETH/BTC lower, in the near term.
- Made on
- 2024-05-17
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-08-05
A broad basket of major altcoin/BTC pairs (e.g. altcoin market cap ex-BTC vs BTC) declines from the utterance-date level at some point within the window.
Criterion (broad basket of major altcoin/BTC pairs declines from the 2024-05-17 level at some point in the window) is met. ETH/BTC was ~0.046 at the utterance and, despite a brief May-20 ETF-news spike to ~0.056, fell below that level from the Aug 5 2024 crash onward (0.0435, then 0.0423) and continued far lower (~0.0177 by Apr 2025). Broad altcoin-vs-BTC metrics (altcoin season index, ETH/BTC sub-0.05 streak) corroborate a basket-wide decline. Resolved_on set to the first unambiguous basket-wide decline below the utterance level (2024-08-05 crash); the decline deepened materially thereafter. No outcome value assigned (later stage).
Sources
Ethereum: Dubious Speculation
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Weekly ETH/BTC closes (Binance ETHBTC klines) show the ratio ~0.0463 at the utterance week (close 2024-05-19), briefly spiking to ~0.0558 on ETF news, then falling to 0.04352 in the week of the Aug 5 2024 crash and to 0.04234 by late August 2024 — the leading altcoin/BTC pair below its utterance-date level within the window. ETH/BTC subsequently collapsed to a historic low of ~0.0177 in April 2025, still inside the window.
The broad altcoin basket underperformed BTC across the window: CoinGecko reports the ETH/BTC ratio stayed below 0.05 for 14+ consecutive months from mid-2024, and the Altcoin Season Index showed only a minority of top-50 alts outperforming BTC — i.e. altcoin-market-cap-ex-BTC declined against BTC, consistent with the written criterion for a broad basket of altcoin/BTC pairs.
The ETH/BTC ratio bottomed at 0.01770 in April 2025 (last seen Feb 2020) amid broad altcoin weakness vs BTC, confirming a decline of the altcoin/BTC basket from the May-2024 level well within the 2024-05-17→2025-05-17 window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.27- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Altcoin/BTC pairs decline, following ETH/BTC lower, in the…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-05-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources