Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin market dominance reaches its cycle top between June and September 2024.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“Bitcoin dominance likely top sometime this summer”
Bitcoin market dominance reaches its cycle top between June and September 2024.
- Made on
- 2024-05-12
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-04-07
BTC dominance prints its highest value of the 2024 cycle within 2024-06-01 to 2024-09-30 and is not exceeded afterward within the resolution horizon.
Criterion (highest value of the 2024 cycle within 2024-06-01..2024-09-30 AND not exceeded afterward) is NOT satisfied: dominance was exceeded in Oct 2024 and repeatedly through 2025. resolved_on set to the widely-cited 60.5% peak of 2025-04-07 (the summer-2024 level was already exceeded by Oct 2024). No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Bitcoin Dominance
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BTC dominance in the Jun-Sep 2024 window sat in the low-to-mid 50s% (2024 annual average 51.9%). It was NOT the cycle top: dominance rose to 60% in October 2024 and hit 60.5% on 2025-04-07 (first time above 60% since March 2021), exceeding all summer-2024 values.
Dominance continued climbing to ~64-65% through 2025 and ~63% by mid-2026 — the highest sustained level in years, far above the summer-2024 range, so the summer-2024 window did not contain the cycle-top value.
Corrections
- statement context: Stored context is not in the transcript (fabricated phrasing); replaced with actual on-transcript words (verified: '...put you out in June which is when I said Bitcoin dominance likely top sometime this summer').
- Quote wording: Transcript reads 'likely top', not 'is going to top'.
- certainty verbatim marker: Transcript marker is 'likely'; 'most likely' derived from unsupported context.
- horizon type: No explicit Jun-Sep window in transcript; deadline inferred from 'sometime this summer'.
- Prediction timeframe: Match the actual transcript phrase.
- horizon deadline: 'this summer' → end of astronomical summer, consistent with siblings; does not change the miss resolution.
- tags: BTC-dominance is a crypto metric; crypto is most-central controlled tag.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin market dominance reaches its cycle top between June…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-05-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources