Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin dominance puts in its cycle top (peak) by January 2025 at the latest
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“Bitcoin dominance is likely going to top within you know probably in the second half of 2024 January 2025 at the latest”
Bitcoin dominance puts in its cycle top (peak) by January 2025 at the latest
- Made on
- 2024-07-25
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-06-25
Bitcoin dominance registers its highest value of the cycle on or before 2025-01-31 and does not exceed that level later in the cycle
Criterion requires the cycle-high dominance to register on/before 2025-01-31 AND not be exceeded later. It was exceeded later: dominance was below 60% in Jan 2025 (first 60%+ print in 4 years was Apr 7 2025) and peaked ~63.2%+ in mid-2025. One secondary source claimed a ~65% Jan 2025 peak, but this conflicts with CoinGecko's primary-grade statement that 60% was not crossed until April 2025; treating CoinGecko as authoritative. Prediction's Jan-2025 top timing is falsified. Not assigning outcome/score.
Sources
Bitcoin Dominance
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
CoinGecko research: BTC dominance crossed 60% 'for the first time in four years' on April 7, 2025, and reached a 2025 high of 63.2% — i.e. dominance rose materially ABOVE its January 2025 level after the Jan 31 2025 deadline, so the cycle top was NOT in place by Jan 2025.
Multiple market trackers report BTC.D continued climbing through H1 2025 to a cycle high in the ~63–66% area around June 25, 2025, before moderating — later and higher than any Jan-2025 reading.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-0.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin dominance puts in its cycle top (peak) by January 2…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-07-25
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources