Prediction record
MisscryptoThe Bitcoin 50/200-day SMA death cross forms within a day or two (by ~2024-08-10)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“death cross is likely going to occur in the next day or two”
The Bitcoin 50/200-day SMA death cross forms within a day or two (by ~2024-08-10)
- Made on
- 2024-08-08
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.56
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2024-08-10
BTC daily 50-day SMA crosses below its 200-day SMA (death cross) on or before 2024-08-10
Criterion: BTC daily 50-day SMA crosses below 200-day SMA on or before 2024-08-10. Evidence indicates the death cross was still 'looming' (not crossed) as of Aug 6 and was reported as 'just formed' on Aug 11 — i.e. it DID form in mid-August 2024 but appears to have confirmed ~Aug 11-14, just after the Aug-10 deadline. TIMING SENSITIVITY at the boundary: the exact crossover day varies slightly by data feed/UTC-close convention, so a source dating it Aug 10 vs Aug 11 flips the outcome. On the balance of reporting the cross confirmed just after Aug 10, so the strict criterion window closed unmet on 2024-08-10, though the event itself occurred only ~1-4 days later. Scoring stage should verify the precise SMA-crossover date against a canonical daily-SMA series. (No outcome value assigned.)
Sources
Bitcoin Death Cross Rally
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
As of Aug 6, 2024 the death cross had NOT yet formed — BTC's 50-day SMA was ~$62,332 and falling toward the 200-day SMA at ~$61,605; media described the cross as 'looming'/'imminent,' not yet confirmed.
U.Today reported Bitcoin had 'just formed its first death cross of 2024' in an article dated Aug 11, 2024 — i.e. the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA around Aug 11, just after the Aug 10 criterion cutoff.
Corrections
- tags: Death cross is a BTC price-structure event → crypto is the subject-domain; crypto primary, markets secondary.
Score contribution
-0.56- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.56
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Bitcoin 50/200-day SMA death cross forms within a day o…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-08-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources